Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

The average annual economic loss describes the expected financial losses per year, on average, due to building damage directly caused by earthquakes.

Example: Over 100 years we may expect a few, rare, large earthquakes (each causing very high economic losses) together with many smaller earthquakes (which may each lead to much lower economic losses), to give rise to economic losses which total € 10 billion. The average annual economic loss would therefore be € 100 million.

The average annual loss of life represents the expected number of fatalities per year, on average, due to damaged and collapsed buildings through earthquakes.

Example: Over 100 years we may expect a few, rare, large earthquakes to cause a total of 200 deaths. The average annual loss of life would therefore be 2.

Figure: Vertical black lines show when important changes within a category of design code were made. Some important earthquakes which have influenced seismic design in Europe are also shown. CDN: No seismic design; CDL: Low code; CDM: moderate code; CDH: high code (latest generation of seismic design codes) (Crowley et al., 2021).

Read more about the evolution of seismic design codes over the past century in the following article published by Crowley et al., 2021: Model of seismic design lateral force levels for the existing reinforced concrete European building stock.

In Europe, Eurocode 8 are the standards recommended for earthquake-resistant construction and retrofitting of buildings and structures to protect human lives, limit damages, and maintain functionally important civil protection structures. Specific hazard maps from the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model will serve for the first time as an informative annexe for the next version of Eurocode 8 to support the definition of seismic actions.

Integrating earthquake hazard models in specific seismic design codes helps ensure that buildings respond appropriately to earthquakes by limiting the catastrophic damage that ground shaking can cause in the area where they are built. Note that the earthquake hazard values must always first be translated into the standards for earthquake-resistant design and cannot be used directly as a basis for construction.

Up-to-date European earthquake hazard and risk models are of particular importance to compare the levels of threat between countries. Having been developed with a harmonised approach, they provide comparable information to civil protection agencies, politicians, civil engineers, architects, insurances, communities, and many others about areas most likely to be affected by damaging earthquakes and about the concentration of vulnerable structures.

Most European countries routinely conduct, update, and publish earthquake hazard assessments at the national level. Such models, when available, provide authoritative information to inform national, regional and local decisions related to developing seismic design codes and risk mitigation strategies. However, the underlying datasets of neighbouring countries are often not compiled consistently. An example is the varying treatment of uncertainties which can lead to inhomogeneous hazard assessments, making it difficult to use earthquake hazard estimates across borders.

Earthquake hazard and risk models are a valuable reference for defining mitigation measures against the adverse effects of potential future earthquakes in Europe. In order to improve societies’ resilience, information on earthquake hazard and risk should always be considered for earthquake prevention, preparedness and response.

Preparedness

• Earthquake hazard models provide a first overview of where strong ground shaking is most likely to occur. In combination with earthquake risk information, we can estimate the impacts that future earthquakes are likely to have in Europe. Therefore, earthquake hazard and risk information helps to raise awareness and allow communities to take informed preparedness decisions.
• Based on comprehensive cost-benefit analyses, earthquake risk information supports long-term resilience planning.

Prevention

• Hazard models are primarily used in drafting seismic provisions, which are needed in order to design buildings that can withstand earthquakes and provide at least a given minimum protection to their occupants. In land-use planning, hazard information is used by urban planners for the development of critical infrastructure and lifelines.
• Integrating earthquake hazard models in specific seismic design codes helps ensure that buildings respond appropriately to earthquakes by limiting the catastrophic damage that ground shaking can cause in the area where they are built.
• Risk models are important to estimate disaster needs prior to events. Hence, they are used as input to develop emergency plans for the public and the private sector as well as disaster-financing plans (e.g., risk transfer mechanisms, including insurance).

Response

• Risk models can provide early estimates of earthquake damages, which can support first responders in search, rescue, and emergency operations. They are also valuable to locate the potentially most affected areas and to inform the resource management.
• Earthquake hazard and risk assessments are a source of information upon which reconstruction decisions after a damaging earthquake can be based. They guide where and how houses and infrastructures should be built.

The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (Danciu et al., 2021) replaces the previous version of Europe’s earthquake hazard model (2013 Euro-Mediterranean Seismic Hazard Model), which was published by Woessner et al., 2015.

• Significant effort has been made to harmonise and extend the main underlying datasets in the updated version, the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model. The new model is again fully harmonized across borders and integrates extended data sets resulting in more accurate estimates of ground shaking levels in Europe.
• Thousands of earthquakes have been added to the earthquake catalogue, which now covers a wider range of magnitudes and includes additional 1,000 historical events.
• Researchers added about 1,200 active faults to the active fault database, spanning over 90,000 km of mapped faults.
• New ground shaking models have been developed for Europe through newly compiled recordings of strong ground shaking and enhanced metadata of 25,000 waveforms.
• State-of-the-art seismogenic source models capture the spatial and temporal pattern of earthquakes across Europe. 
• Finally, researchers applied the most recent scientific knowledge to combine these datasets into computational seismic hazard models leading to an updated hazard model for Europe.

The advanced datasets incorporated into the new version of the model have led to a more comprehensive assessment. In consequence, ground shaking estimates have been adjusted, resulting in lower estimates in most parts of Europe, with the exception of some regions in western Turkey, Greece, Albania, Romania, southern Spain, and southern Portugal, where higher ground shaking estimates are observed. The updated model also confirms that Turkey, Greece, Albania, Italy, and Romania are the countries with the highest earthquake hazard in Europe, followed by the other Balkan countries. But even in regions with low or moderate ground shaking estimates, earthquakes can occur at any time.

While most European countries have conducted seismic hazard assessments, most have not identified the potential impact of future earthquakes through a seismic risk assessment. Therefore, the European Seismic Risk Model provides a basis upon which national authorities can further build.

With the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), the first harmonised, openly available assessment of its type became available for Europe. All underlying datasets have been published under a Creative Commons open data license. Further, the methods used to develop the input models have been documented, thus allowing reproducibility of the model and the risk results. Such an open-data policy enables others to test the models, identify gaps in the data, and improve them for future earthquake risk models.

The 2020 European Seismic Risk Model consists of information on the density of buildings and people (exposure), the vulnerability of the built environment, and robust earthquake hazard assessments, derived from Europe’s updated earthquake hazard model, and accounting for the influence of local site amplification. 

When an earthquake occurs, the intensity of ground shaking at any given place will depend on how large the earthquake was (its magnitude), how deep it was, the way in which the fault ruptured, and the kind of soil at the given location. 

Suppose you are inside a building at the time of an earthquake. In that case, the intensity of shaking inside the structure, and the possibility that it may be damaged or even collapse, will depend on various additional factors: the material of the building, the number of storeys, its foundation, the level of seismic design, and the quality of construction and maintenance.

According to the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model, buildings constructed before the 1980s, urban areas, and high earthquake hazard estimates mainly drive the earthquake risk. Although European countries have recent design codes and standards that ensure adequate protection from earthquakes, many older unreinforced or insufficiently reinforced buildings still exist, posing a high risk for their inhabitants.

Turkey, Greece, Albania, Italy, and Romania are the countries with the highest hazard in Europe, followed by the other Balkan Countries. However, earthquake hazard is also considerable in some regions of Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Iceland, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland.

Even in regions with a lower or moderate earthquake hazard, earthquakes can occur at any time.

For a first impression, check out the earthquake hazard and risk at your location using our interactive map viewer.

The interactive map viewer gives you an aggregated, first-order assessment of the earthquake hazard and risk at any given location across Europe. However, additional information is needed to get to know more about the earthquake risk at your location of interest, including the soil conditions directly underneath your building and more details about its construction, e.g. if it meets current seismic design codes.

To learn more about local earthquake hazard and risk assessments and regulations at your location, check the local government's website, civil protection agency or seismological service, or get in touch with them directly. They can offer more information on a national or regional level. Such models, when available, provide authoritative information to inform national, regional and local decisions related to developing seismic design codes and risk mitigation strategies. Note that the earthquake hazard values must always first be translated into the standards for earthquake-resistant design and cannot be used directly as a basis for construction.

It is important to know how to behave and react when an earthquake occurs. Take a look at the following recommendations to find out what you can do during shaking. In any case, always heed and follow the instructions issued by the local authorities and find out in advance about local information or warning systems and escape or evacuation routes.

Inside of a building:

• Take cover (e. g. under a sturdy table).
• Beware of falling objects (e. g. shelves, televisions and light fittings).
• Keep away from windows and glass walls, which may shatter.
• Only leave the building when the surrounding area is safe (when there are no more falling objects).

Outside:

• Stay outside, do not seek shelter in a building.
• Keep away from buildings, bridges, electricity pylons, large trees, and other things that could collapse or fall.
• Keep away from the shores or bodies of water after strong shaking.

After the event:

• Expect aftershocks.
• Help others without putting yourself in danger.
• Check building for damage.
• Leave the building in the case of severe damage. The building may be at risk of collapsing and will not withstand further quakes.Exercise caution when leaving the building. Pieces of masonry, roof beams, tiles, and the like may still fall off.
• Check the building and surrounding area for potential fires. When possible, extinguish small fires and / or alert the fire service.
• Check water and gas pipes and electrical wiring for damage. Turn off supply if damage is suspected.
• Seek information from television, radio, or the internet.
• Follow the instructions of emergency service personnel.
• Only use telephone in an emergency. Phone lines should be kept free for genuine emergencies.
• No individual travel by car. Roads should be kept free for emergency services.
• Power cuts are likely.

Since we can neither predict nor deter an earthquake from happening, earthquake-resistant construction offers a minimum protection needed to save lives and prevent major damages. Its prime objective is to prevent buildings from collapsing and thereby avoid injuries and fatalities. Furthermore, it seeks to keep buildings working during an earthquake and limit subsequent damage, for example, caused by fire. National regulations as well as international standards such as the Eurocode 8 “Design of structures for earthquake resistance” are effective measures to protect human life, limit damage, and keep important structures functional.

Besides earthquake-resistant construction, additional actions could be taken to minimise the effects of earthquakes at home and when on holiday:

• Inform yourself about the earthquake hazard and risk of the region you live or your holiday destination, and be aware of potential earthquakes.
• Create an emergency plan for your household: Locate where the main valves and switches for gas, water, and electricity are and know how to turn them off. Identify where you can hide under in each room and how to evacuate your building. You might not be able to use the internet or phone anymore in the event of an earthquakes, therefore, make a plan for what to do and where to go if you cannot communicate.
• Secure objects that could fall down or topple over (e.g. mount the TV to the wall with a bracket and secure heavy or tall furniture).
• Have an emergency grab bag: store emergency equipment in a box or back bag and place it within easy reach.
• Take out earthquake insurance to reduce your (financial) risk.

When travelling abroad to an earthquake-prone country, you can take personal precautions. Before starting your journey, you may wish to find out if your destination is often affected by earthquakes. On the earthquake hazard and risk maps of Europe, you can discover the level of earthquake hazard and risk across Europe to seek relevant information about your travel destination. When travelling to an area recently hit by a major earthquake, contact your tour operator or the local authorities or inform yourself through media reports about the situation on the ground and the consequences for your planned travel.

For shorter stays:

• Familiarise yourself with the recommended behaviour in the event of an earthquake.
• When you arrive at your accommodation, take a moment to find out where you might seek protection in the event of an earthquake (e.g. underneath a sturdy table or bed).
• Arrange with your fellow travellers where you would meet up after a quake or how you would get in touch with each other. Please note that mobile telephony and the power supply may not work for quite some time after a major event. Parks and open spaces make suitable meeting places.
• Make sure that you always have access to a modest cash reserve and to your passport or ID.
• If possible, when choosing accommodation or renting an apartment or house, ask about its earthquake resistance. Take note of the kind of geology the building is located on (in general the softer it is and the more sediment it contains, the worse is its performance in earthquakes) and avoid buildings with soft ground floors (e.g. large shops at ground level with just a few columns supporting the floors above them) or locations in narrow streets or on steep hillsides.

For longer stays:

• Put together a first-aid kit.
• Keep emergency provisions at hand.
• Copy important documents like passports and driving licenses and have them to hand in the event of an earthquake.
• To get through power outages, have a flashlight, battery-powered radio and cash to hand (money withdrawals from ATMs may no longer be possible).
• Secure any items susceptible to damage from tremors and/or that could fall down and cause injury. These include such things as ceiling panels, shelves and their contents, televisions, music systems and lighting.
• Make a list of key telephone numbers, including those of the local police station, fire service and paramedics, as well as of the responsible embassy and/or nearest consulate. Save these numbers in your mobile phone, leave a copy in a readily accessible place and/or print it out in a small format to keep in your wallet.
• Find out how to switch off gas, electricity or water supplies in the event that you need to do so.

During and afterwards

• The recommended response during and after an earthquake abroad is the same everywhere across the globe (see the question “How can I best prepare for an earthquake?”).
• When staying in coastal areas, you should pay special attention to the possibility of tsunamis. If you feel seismic tremors on a flat stretch of coast, move to higher ground inland as quickly as possible. Even more distant earthquakes can cause tsunamis close to where you happen to be. Heed and follow the instructions issued by the local authorities and find out in advance about local tsunami warning systems and escape or evacuation routes. Leave your place of refuge only after the local authorities have sounded the all-clear, since more waves may follow initial ones, sometimes only after a longer time lag

The SERA project ended in 2020, which was the main funding source for the development of the European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models. It is a common practice to name the projects accordingly. Data access to the models has been granted in 2021 to the scientific community and now, in 2022, the models are presented to the public.

A core team of researchers from different institutions across Europe worked collaboratively in the framework of various projects to develop the 2020 European Seismic Hazard and Risk Models.

Over the past decades, many more have contributed to the development of the models by different means including data compilation and curation, knowledge exchange or by providing feedback at meetings and webinars. This has all been undertaken in close collaboration with the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation and the European Plate Observing System (EPOS). The efforts have been funded by several European projects and supported by national groups.

A comprehensive list with the individuals that have contributed to the earthquake hazard model for Europe can be found here and for Europe’s first openly available earthquake risk model here.

In 2015, the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) released the Global Assessment Report (GAR, 2015), which used probabilistic earthquake risk assessment to estimate the uniform average annual losses (AAL) for a number of perils, including earthquakes, at the global scale. Given that this model had a global application, it was not developed with the same level of detail and knowledge as Europe’s first openly available earthquake risk model. In contrast, the European Seismic Risk Model is a region-specific model, making use of many open datasets and methodologies applicable for Europe. For example, whereas the European exposure model has been developed by collecting dwelling and building census data from each country in Europe, and by involving local earthquake engineers in the classification of the buildings, the GAR exposure model was based on a top-down approach, whereby national/regional population, socio-economic data, and building-type information were used as proxies to estimate the spatial distribution of asset replacement costs and building counts.

In 2018, the GEM Foundation released the Global Seismic Risk Map (GEM, 2018), developed using a mosaic of individual risk models which were produced as part of regional programmes or bilateral collaborations between GEM and national institutions. Some of the partners involved in developing the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model collaborated with GEM for the European component of the global map, but there have been significant developments in the seismic hazard, vulnerability, and exposure models since the model release in 2018.

Another key characteristic of this European earthquake risk model that distinguishes it from other models is that the underlying datasets have been openly published and licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The methods used to develop the input models have been clearly documented, thus allowing reproducibility of the model and the risk results.

• GAR (2015) UNISDR Global Assessment Report
• GEM (2018) Global Seismic Risk Map (v2018.1)

Unlike national earthquake risk assessments, most European countries routinely conduct, update, and publish earthquake hazard assessments at the national level. Such models, when available, provide authoritative information to inform national, regional, and local decisions related to developing seismic design codes and risk mitigation strategies.

However, comparisons with some available national seismic hazard models (e.g. in Italy and Portugal) have been made to ensure that the results are consistent. Differences are to be expected due to the application of different generations of hazard models, different levels of resolution, and the need for the European risk model to apply consistent and harmonised assumptions at the European scale. When operating within a given country, precedence should always be given to the national model, where available. The European models can provide an important resource for comparing the different of levels of hazard between countries and regions in Europe. Therefore, the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model is again fully harmonised across borders and offers comparable information, crucial to establishing effective transnational disaster mitigation strategies.

Want to learn more about specific national or regional earthquake hazard and risk assessments? Member institutions of EFEHR may help guide you to the authorised national or regional information:

No. Earthquakes cannot be precisely predicted nor prevented. However, these models are developed to estimate possible future ground shaking across Europe (hazard) and their effects on the built environment (risk) for supporting mitigation actions.

Maps derived from the hazard model of Europe display the effects of different earthquakes that might occur in a several-year to several-decade period. The model bases all probability estimates on the average rate of earthquakes over long periods of time. By adding data about buildings, their location, exposure and vulnerability, the economic and humanitarian effects, for example, in terms of the average annual economic loss and the average annual loss of life, can be determined.  

Locations and frequencies of earthquakes, and their effects on humans and the built environment, cannot be precisely predicted. Related uncertainties are, therefore, an inherent part of the models. Acknowledging and quantifying these uncertainties is at the core of the model building process and necessary to establish reliable models. The impacts of earthquake-induced environmental effects such as landslides, rock falls, or tsunamis can be added to these earthquake hazard and risk models. Thanks to the models, we gain an improved understanding of where strong shaking is most likely to occur as well as their impacts on the built environment and humans, which can be used as an important input to assessing these secondary hazards.

The earthquake hazard and risk models for Europe are not suitable for site-specific applications, but they allow a comparison between different countries across Europe since their underlying datasets have been harmonised. Furthermore, when national earthquake hazard or risk assessments are available, they provide authoritative information to inform national, regional and local decisions related to developing seismic design codes and risk mitigation strategies.

Discover more about the earthquake hazard and risk across Europe here. Further information, explanatory material and access to technical reports, maps, and much more is available to download.

• For a direct access to the earthquake hazard model visit www.hazard.efehr.org
• For a direct access to the earthquake risk model visit www.risk.efehr.org

Please observe the license and copyright information.

Whenever making use of scientific products such as input files or when distributing visualisations of the models, please add the following references.

For the 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20):

Danciu L.¹, Nandan S.¹, Reyes C.¹, Basili R.², Weatherill G.³, Beauval C.⁴, Rovida A.², Vilanova S.⁵, Sesetyan K.⁶, Bard P-Y.⁴, Cotton F.³, Wiemer S.¹, Giardini D.¹ (2021) - The 2020 update of the European Seismic Hazard Model: Model Overview. EFEHR Technical Report 001, v1.0.0, https://doi.org/10.12686/a15

1. ETH Zurich, Switzerland
2. National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV), Italy
3. German Research Centre for Geociences (GFZ), Germany
4. Institute of Earth Sciences (ISTerre), France
5. Advanced Technical Institute (IST), University of Lisbon, Portugal
6. Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute, Bogazici University, Turkey

For the 2020 European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20):

Crowley H.¹, Dabbeek J.¹, Despotaki V.^2*, Rodrigues D.^1*, Martins L.², Silva V.², Romão X.³, Pereira N.^3*, Weatherill G.⁴, Danciu L.⁵ (2021): European Seismic Risk Model (ESRM20), EFEHR Technical Report 002, V1.0.0, 84 pp, https://doi.org/10.7414/EUC-EFEHR-TR002-ESRM20

1. EUCENTRE Foundation, Pavia, Italy
2. GEM Foundation, Pavia, Italy
3. University of Porto, Porto, Portugal
4. GFZ Potsdam, Germany
5. ETH Zurich, Switzerland
   * Former affiliation